THE MONTH AHEAD

Damn, Saturday was fun!

Eventually.

After a long, painful slog that seemed likely never to turn in the Bombers favour, Saturday afternoon’s victory over St Kilda was electric – even if many who watched are now monitoring heart-related issues.

I feel older for having just attended Marvel Stadium.

The round three match-up between two teams with varying expectations was a frustrating and occasionally dour affair, with goals at times few and far between. Yet, after a slow start and an almost countless list of missed opportunities, Essendon finally found the right gear and took the lead late in the final quarter. It was a showcase of all that looks good and equally bad for this Brad Scott-led Bombers team.

Blistering ball movement and fierce contests, mixed in with horrific failures to stifle opponents in-transition and defensive holes that looked wider than Bourke Street Mall at times. 2024 feels like it’s going to be one hell of a ride for the red and black.

But with the win over the Saints in the books and a 2-1 record to start the season, the Dons now face down arguably their toughest month of footy for 2024.

Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (Gather Round)

Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium

Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

Collingwood @ MCG

The question facing all the faithful is simple: what can Dons fans expect from this run?

The Power will be stinging after their tight loss to Melbourne on Saturday night, though, they’ve not needed much incentive to give the Bombers a clip in recent memory. Port Adelaide have beaten Essendon in the last seven matches, including crushing drubbings of 84, 59, 54 and 50pts, along with last year’s double-heartbreaker losses of 5 and 4pts.

Last year’s round 16 loss at the MCG left a particularly nasty wound on all the faithful. So, have Brad Scott and co learnt enough out of those losses to bridge that gap and finally get that elusive W against the Power?

Gather Round will be a key barometer for this Essendon side in 2024.

The Bulldogs have treated the Bombers very poorly as well and it’s starting to get plain rude. Aside from an out-of-character 13pt win in 2021, thanks almost exclusively to a 7-goal haul from Peter Wright, the Dons have been pummelled by the Dogs - the less said about a particular 104 loss in 2019 the better.

So, should fans expect any different in 2024?

The Dogs have notched up two commanding wins themselves this season, against Gold Coast and West Coast, but it’s hard to tell whether they’ve truly been tested.

Maybe round five will be that test.

Coming into the season, Adelaide had an air of potential about them that seemed ominous. Their playing list looked to have developed through 2023 and they seemed primed for a run at finals. Yet, after only a few weeks of footy the Crows look … off. This was no better highlighted than their performance against Fremantle at Optus Stadium on Good Friday.

Adelaide looked sloppy, slow and at times confused about how to get a goal. A score line of 4.10.34 suggests they’re still figuring it out. Let’s pray they continue this trend – so too the Dons recent record over the Crows, standing at 6 wins on the trot. The Bombers haven’t lost to Adelaide since 2017. But Adelaide in Adelaide is never to be underestimated.

And last to round out the month, but certainly not least, is Collingwood.

As of now, the Magpies have secured just one win from their four starts, but that doesn’t mean we can trust that sort of form line to continue. In eight of their last 11 meetings, the Bombers have fallen short against the Pies, with the last two being particularly painful. A narrow loss thanks to a final quarter failure on Anzac Day and a 70pt thumping to end the 2023 campaign.

Few teams in the AFL go out of their way to make the life of an Essendon fan hell like the Pies do, so form has often meant little. Beating Collingwood is never easy, and this Anzac Day will be no exception. But with the expected return of a few key players into the 22, and hopefully some good form over the next three weeks – the Bombers might have a sniff at an upset.

The latest injury report from the club gives an indication that a number of potential returns could be in store over the coming weeks. Late out from over the weekend, Will Setterfield, is expected to return against the Power, while Jordan Ridley and Matt Guelfi are roughly 1-2 weeks away respectively. Dylan Shiel is marked as 1-week away and Sam Durham will almost certainly return against the Bulldogs, after waiting out the week due to concussion protocols.

Zach Reid still looks to be 3-weeks away and with a little luck, he may be in line for a return on Anzac Day – along with Peter Wright, who will have concluded his suspension. These added options will no doubt help selection and keep pressure nice and tight on those hoping to hold onto their spots.

Having said all that let’s be real, the next month could be an unmitigated disaster filled with heavy losses, potential injuries, suspensions, and news article after news article about flawed game plans, missed opportunities and God-forbid … the Essendon Edge.

I doubt any Bombers fan is looking at the fixture without some trepidation.

Has a brutal summer for the Dons got them set for a stronger showing in 2024?

So, what’s a realistic return?

4-0 is crazy country. That’s GF tickets territory, so that’s a flat no.

3-1 is exciting, but a whole lot would have to go perfectly. Essendon isn’t that, not just yet.

1-3 is ugly and leaves the fan base wondering if the club has improved at all.

0-4 is dark times. Even against the opposition ahead, life would be bleak and already many would be sniffing out draft prospects and talking up trades.

Microwaves would be at the ready.

I think the goldilocks number of wins, and if I’m not being too much of a nuffie, is 2-2. With wins against the Bulldogs and Crows being the most realistic right now.

This would have the club in good shape at 4-3 before heading west to play the Eagles, and some truly winnable games across the guts of the season. A springboard to develop a truly consistent, reliable brand of footy. But this can only happen when the players believe they can … and maybe they’re starting to.

Brad Scott spoke at the press conference on Saturday about the players’ steadfast resolve when things were going south, early against the Saints. ‘I was probably looking for a reset button three minutes into the game, we were a bit all over the place. Perhaps in the past, according to some of the players, they might have dropped their bundle, that this isn't our day today’.

It’s interesting to hear that the players are conscious of their previous mindset and that (*fingers crossed*) those type of thoughts are now well and truly, a thing of the past.

But it’s a long road and one game doesn’t constitute a trend. In the eyes of most, Essendon is still the same old dodgy Dons. Fans included. Before the game against St Kilda, you couldn’t find a pundit tipping Essendon for the win, and I doubt that pattern will change any time soon.

But maybe that’s a good thing.

The Bombers have been hyped a thousand times before and come up short, so perhaps rather than pretend to be a team on the rise, Essendon finally has to prove it.

And if they can grind out a few more wins like they did on Saturday afternoon, those pundits might start to think twice about the Essendon Football Club.

Go Planes.