The dreaded 0-2
Well, it’s safe to say that the balloon of excitement is well and truly deflated.
The start of the 2022 season is rivaling 2021 for how bad a year can start. With a disaster against the Cats under our belt and now a frustrating showing against the Lions we are staring down the very likely possibility of losing the first three matches of the season.
The last and only time this occurred was in 1967. Essendon lost its first 5 matches before eventually beating Footscray in Round 6. The Bombers finished that season in 6th, although it was in a 12 team competition. Only the top 4 played finals back then.
As many of us are aware, making finals after losing your first two games of the year is statistically unlikely, with under 10% of sides achieving the feat since 2010.
A glimmer of hope is that we defied that trend last year, turning our season around after smashing a meagre St Kilda in Round 3. However, that crucial first win seems further away this year, as we stare down the near impenetrable reigning premiers in Melbourne this Friday.
As rare as it is making finals after losing your first two matches, making finals after losing the first three matches is even rarer, but it does happen.
Adelaide started 2001 in terrible form, but a narrow win over Carlton at Princes Park turned the year around and the Crows managed to scrape into 8th place on the ladder. They did however cop an 11 goal hiding at the hands of the Blues in the Elimination Final.
In 2004 Geelong failed to clear a hurdle until Round 4 but would ride that momentum across 15 wins finishing in 4th. A year that took the Cats all the way to a Preliminary Final loss against the then 3 time reigning premiers Brisbane.
In 2006 the Demons lost their first 3 games but would inevitably turn it around to finish the year with 13 wins, a draw and 7th spot on the ladder. They would make light work of St Kilda in the Elimination Final but would lose to Fremantle in a Semi.
In 2007 North Melbourne waited until a round 4 match against Carlton to register its first win of the season. From there they went on to win 14 games and finished 4th on the ladder and were eventually knocked out in the Preliminary Final by the would-be runner up Port Adelaide.
In 2013, Carlton lost its first three games and then played finals as amazing as it seems. However, this one comes with an asterisk as they finished 9th on the ladder and were elevated into the finals at Essendon’s expense due to the fallout from ‘The Saga’. Great memories.
Most recently the unthinkable was achieved by Sydney in 2017, who lost their first 6 games of the season and turned it around to make finals. As we would all rather forget they beat us in the Elimination Final in week 1. More great memories.
So, what happens if we can’t defy the odds and beat Melbourne this Friday?
Those who follow the numbers will say that it's curtains for Essendon’s attempt to feature in September this year. The optimists will tell you that if it's mathematically possible then anything can happen.
I will tell you that I’m leaning towards us having a failed year, should we lose, but with three very winnable games over the following month - turning it around to be 3-3 isn’t beyond us.
The wider concern is the talent we don’t have available on the field and the function of those who are. With an ever-growing injury list our talent pool is becoming dry, however forced outs will give opportunities to new faces which can be a positive in the long run.
After some promising signs in the VFL I would like to see Ben Hobbs given his first chance at senior footy. Ricky (Nic) Martin “he bangs he bangs” will play after his stint out thanks to Covid regulations and I think Kaine Baldwin deserves another chance before Harry Jones is available again.
Considering our small forward options aren’t sticking tackles, another key forward may be more beneficial for us over the coming weeks. The extra height will give an opportunity to the likes of Francis/Wright to roam up the ground and will not leave us with someone under 6 feet playing as a full forward.
25 scoring shots weren’t enough to beat the Lions on Saturday as we sprayed shots left and right, but it gives some hope that if we straighten up, we can score well against a side expected to go deep into September.
There’s plenty of other issues I could address in this piece from midfield balance, out of form leaders, and a washed-up Crichton medal winner but that may have to wait for another week.
The ship hasn’t sunk just yet faithful, but it’s taking on a lot of water… and fast.
